Seismic Risks to Iraqi National Security

Abstract

This research evaluates the risks of seismic activity and its potential impacts on Iraqi national security, focusing on the tectonic dynamics and tectonic plate movements in the region. Based on the "elastic rebound" theory, the study discusses the causes of earthquakes, demonstrating the impact of the Arabian Plate's continuous northeastern movement and its collision with both the Eurasian (Iran) and Anatolian (Turkey) plates, which explains the activity of the surrounding seismic belts.

Furthermore, the research reviews the secondary risks resulting from the accumulation of rock stress and its impact on strategic projects, particularly the unprecedented boom in mega-dam construction within Turkish territories (such as the Ilisu Dam). The study warns that any violent seismic activity (exceeding magnitude 6 on the Moment Magnitude Scale) could lead to the collapse of these dams, threatening catastrophic floods that would directly jeopardize the safety of nearby Iraqi cities and regions.

The study concludes that Iraq is relatively safe from direct seismic disasters, with the exception of the districts and sub-districts located within the Zagros fold belt, as well as the border areas adjacent to Turkey in Zakho, Duhok, and Mosul. This necessitates incorporating these geopolitical and environmental risks into national security strategies.