The International System and the Contemporary Gilpinian Moment: The Sino-Russian Strategic Alignment and Global Power Transformations

Abstract

This study examines the current structural transformations in the international system, drawing upon Robert Gilpin’s neorealist perspective on the decline of hegemonic powers, specifically focusing on the contemporary "Gilpinian Moment." This concept represents the structural gap between the realities of material power and the liberal institutional frameworks inherited from American unipolarity. The study revolves around a central question: How does the Sino-Russian strategic alignment accelerate the maturation of this transitional moment and deepen global structural fractures?

By deconstructing the cycle of international change, the analysis reveals that the United States is facing the dilemma of the "marginal cost of hegemony" and imperial overstretch under the law of diminishing returns; the costs of maintaining the system now outweigh its domestic economic benefits, compounded by the free-rider problem and differential growth favoring rising powers.

Furthermore, the study highlights the strategic effectiveness of the Sino-Russian alignment as a conscious structural necessity that has engineered a clever "geopolitical division of labor." Russia acts as a "hard disruptor" militarily straining the Western security architecture, while China serves as a "soft restructurer" building alternative geo-economic networks (such as the BRICS+ bloc) and gradually de-dollarizing. The study concludes that the ongoing "polar liquidity" leaves the world with two potential future paths: either a historic "equilibrating settlement" that voluntarily recognizes spheres of influence and multipolarity, or a slide toward a "hegemonic clash" through a preventive war to reshape the global hierarchy of power.