Kirkuk Elections 2023: Challenges and Component Positions (The Turkmen as a Case Study)

Abstract

Amid the ongoing political transformations in Iraq, the issue of Kirkuk stands out as one of the most complex and sensitive files. The city is witnessing intense competition among its ethnic and political components, making the formation of a local government that satisfies all parties a major challenge. Internal and external factors, as well as the influence of regional and international powers, play a decisive role in shaping the political landscape of Kirkuk. While some seek tangible progress in this matter, these efforts face significant challenges due to the political entanglements and alliances of various forces, weakening the chances of achieving a sustainable balance between the conflicting parties. After Kirkuk was excluded from the provincial council elections for 18 years due to multiple complications—ranging from legal, political, and societal issues—the city was finally included in the provincial council elections held on December 18, 2023, with the goal of electing a democratically chosen administration to manage the province and serve its residents. Expectations were that these elections would contribute to resolving the political and administrative issues in the city and enhance stability. However, the elections resulted in mixed outcomes, which, due to the complex and diverse social balances in Kirkuk, had direct repercussions on the election results and consequently on the entire political process, making it difficult to form the necessary alliances to govern the province. As a result of these complications, and given the city’s diversity and significant differences, the selection of the local government was delayed by seven months. This placed Kirkuk once again at the forefront of key issues on Iraq’s agenda. Iraqi Prime Minister, Mr. Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, intervened directly, attempting to bring the winning parties to the negotiation table in order to form a Kirkuk governance coalition. Despite these efforts, the formation of a government that represents all the ethnic and political forces in the province was not achieved, raising concerns about the destabilization of the city. Legal texts, such as Article 13 of the Election Law, which emphasizes the necessity of representing all components, were not properly implemented, further complicating the political situation in Kirkuk.